There were a lot of surface things I didn't like about this episode of Lost. For one thing, I hated the whole cheesy concept of humans as the variables. Daniel's entire speech rang false, like some goofy new age "Indomitable spirit of humanity wins out" ramblings. This, coming from the rational scientist character. And Daniel was one of the better characters, so I'm really sorry to see him die. I also dreaded the reveal of Widmore as Faraday's father. Must everyone be related to everyone else? Is this a soap opera now? And, as things come to their conclusions it's becoming difficult for the writers to cram all the details nicely into the story they have left. For one thing, they've announced they won't have time to return to Libby's "incredibly tangential" story. Then in this episode, we finally see the leadup and payoff of the first scene of season 5 - Daniel in the Orchid station. The only problem is, it didn't make any sense.
The scene of Daniel apparently in the 1970's that kicked off season 5 was incredibly enticing for Lost fans. How did he get there? This is the past, right? Is Daniel a member of DHARMA? Is this the Incident? We now know the answers to all those questions, but the reveal fell flat. Daniel has Miles drive him to the Orchid to confront Chang, then hides his identity in the construction area and tries to play coy. Moments later, he pulls a 180 and confronts Chang with a crazy story about time travel, the Incident and his son Miles. Why wouldn't Daniel just mention something before he goes down into the Orchid? What was the point of Daniel even going into the construction area, except that it was already written into the season opener? Well, it happened because it happened I guess.
With "The Variable" the writers add yet another crazy layer of predestination to the story, a theme I've mentioned in the past. The most apt analogy is the ouroboros, a snake devouring its own tail. The stories are getting twisted too! Eloise sends her son on a mission through time, ending with Daniel being shot by his own mother! It's like a reverse grandfather paradox. Not to mention the fact that Daniel must have been born by 1977. Daniel is a professor at Oxford in 1996 when he meets Desmond. Even being "the youngest doctor ever to graduate from Oxford" Daniel would have to be at least 19 or 20 by 1996. So, he must have been born before 1977.
Now poor Ellie has killed her own baby. I'd guess she's among the first to leave before the Incident. She knew all along, but she had to send him anyway. Daniel's journey culminated on the Island, but it began that day his mother told him he could no longer play piano.
Eloise sends Daniel on a journey that ends with his journal being passed to Jack Shephard. Daniel's whole life of science, giving up on dreams of music, the graduation gift presented by his mother...all so he could record these incredible details in his journal. He spent his life calculating equations and conducting experiments no one else would or could, including theories about time travel that have been proven to be true, like his meetings with his constant, Desmond Hume. What was it all for? Well, it was all written down in his journal, which has traveled to the year 1977. That's why Eloise had to send her son to certain death on the Island.
Of course, any meddling Jack and the rest try to do will only ensure that everything happens just as it happened - though a few people escape thanks to Daniel's warning, an "incident" will claim many lives and the arm of Dr. Chang, possibly causing all the mothers on the Island to die in childbirth, and resulting in the modifications to the Swan Hatch requiring the button to be pressed. There's no other way for things to happen. If, for instance, Jack prevented the Incident then the button would never need pressed, and Oceanic 815 would never crash. Therefore Jack would never board Ajira 316 and never end up in 1977, so the Incident would happen anyway because Jack wasn't there!
The key is that someone from 2008 was in 1977 to receive that journal. Whatever details are in that journal won't be any help in 1977 because the past cannot be changed. The Incident can not be stopped but, in 2008 two groups have gathered on the Island and are preparing for war. The information Daniel passes on through his journal will be instrumental in "the right side" winning that war, but it's still unclear who all the players are and who "the right side" is.
Lost is finally answering questions faster than new ones crop up. As it approaches its conclusion, some of the reveals seem a little "yeah, yeah...we guessed that months ago" but of course they have to be shown. The good news is that Lost continues to present stories that make you think, that you can spend time dissecting and conjecturing about, and that reward you even if you guessed wrong.
Next week, "Follow the Leader"
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